Tennis · resolved market
Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c423583e7d4afc647d63a95df07ddab16890db063a53f8f8a450d16a44e948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 56c | 17,894$9,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,896.15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 44c | 15,000$6,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 1,117$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.78 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 46c | 1,101$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.45 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 54c | 1,019$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.24 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 48c | 1,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.45 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 52c | 893.84$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.04 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 874$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 54c | 409.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 46c | 347.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 54c | 221.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b5…b370backed Under | 48c | 208.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 47c | 200.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 180$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 44c | 140.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Over | 54c | 132.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 96.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…e5b8backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 47c | 89.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Under | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over | 53c | 78.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8199backed Over | 55c | 72.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 48c | 62.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 57.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 46c | 51.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 53c | 47.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 47c | 38.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…6323backed Under | 48c | 37.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8a…1cb9backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7df1backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f4ccbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.