Tennis · resolved market
Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e2b57c17990d6ab621cd8dd5e7d3c771e64f2d839264dac20efb5182e8e77c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 3,689$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.09 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 3,177$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.73 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Under 3.5 | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 44%107 W · 136 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 1,523$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.98 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 1,312$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.2 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,119$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.26 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,061$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.13 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 970.53$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.32 | 545 | 41.7%227 W · 318 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.5 | 57c | 655.23$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Over 3.5 | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 515.29$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.32 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 383$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 368.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 212.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 211.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dc…f68fbacked Over 3.5 | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 199.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 197.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 167.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 3.5 | 41c | 144.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 136.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 128.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9df1backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 117.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 98.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…d3c2backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 465 | 62.6%291 W · 174 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…e5b8backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 67.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1841…4d34backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 53.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 50.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…3366backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…2473backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…5dc1backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 43.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 38.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 41c | 35.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…ae42backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…1a7ebacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 30.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…324dbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…978ebacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…489cbacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…a5dfbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.