Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed13a5de82f009cb551af5cc4ad9d45492c8bd453cf7ca3f5852d3d8e09ab979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 885.88$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 200.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 178$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 173.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 164.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 153.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 153.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 152.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 111$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 109.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 41c | 100.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 48c | 94.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 85.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 46c | 79.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 73.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Yes | 69c | 72.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 72.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 71.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 55c | 63.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 62.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed No | 52c | 62.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 60c | 61.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 58.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 56.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 43c | 52.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 44c | 52.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 60c | 48.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 42.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 80c | 42.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 42.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 53c | 37.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 55c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 49c | 36.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…70a8backed Yes | 49c | 30.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 49c | 29.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 28.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 47c | 27.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 57c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 22.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…6b67backed Yes | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.