Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b28776cb17497d2a23d216dd21fd32c603c7b6e0a2d3e44e35fcfed14dac11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 1,497$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 267.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 168.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 164.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 160.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 125.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 111.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 104.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 103.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 96.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 90.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 90.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 81.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 71.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 40c | 60.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 50c | 59.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 58.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 58.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 57.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 57.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 52.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 52.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 50.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed No | 73c | 48.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 76c | 43.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 35.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 33.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 68c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 58c | 27.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 26.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 71c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 62c | 25.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.