TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
REKONIXof Team Nemesis, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,753,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,538,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,753,514 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed REKONIX56c782,601$441,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340,626.6414840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Nemesis49c312,812$153,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,416.2612560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Team Nemesis26c24,599$6,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,298.9916232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed REKONIX49c15,272$7,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,823.4554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis33c10,369$3,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.291,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis35c6,433$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236.931,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Nemesis34c5,552$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.9451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2539…1f2cbacked Team Nemesis50c4,768$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed REKONIX71c4,666$3,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Nemesis18c4,587$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.6150449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Nemesis33c3,896$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.6896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed Team Nemesis51c3,421$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.821850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Nemesis56c3,238$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.4411839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked REKONIX69c3,186$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Nemesis57c2,834$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.2780056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Team Nemesis58c2,829$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.853351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Nemesis32c2,827$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.2113854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Nemesis46c2,744$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.7420767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis45c2,686$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.492,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked REKONIX53c2,515$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.771973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Nemesis51c2,394$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.2667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked REKONIX42c2,364$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.0723653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed REKONIX43c2,321$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.256746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Team Nemesis50c2,135$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.0413456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Team Nemesis51c2,114$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Nemesis35c1,962$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8251140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Team Nemesis50c1,959$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.73666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed Team Nemesis50c1,936$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.062835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Nemesis48c1,936$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.7294442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a3…a1d0backed Team Nemesis1c1,914$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Nemesis46c1,753$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.2736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis27c1,727$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.72,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed Team Nemesis40c1,708$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.3420452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed Team Nemesis56c1,682$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Nemesis49c1,557$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.4555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Nemesis50c1,479$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.1214854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked REKONIX72c1,366$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked REKONIX50c1,203$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.561,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Team Nemesis33c1,200$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.928137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed REKONIX51c1,176$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.1128341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2a…9c0abacked REKONIX45c1,162$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.274238.1%16 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Nemesis51c1,051$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.0125549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Team Nemesis57c1,050$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.54951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Nemesis41c1,027$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed REKONIX56c1,011$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.9545061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Team Nemesis49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-57.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Team Nemesis31c974.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1911960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked REKONIX50c955.14$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.69145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed REKONIX65c941.75$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.9417454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Team Nemesis45c936.34$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.3523342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Team Nemesis50c923.35$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46137745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked REKONIX47c859.92$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.4899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked REKONIX48c850$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.518156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Nemesis49c849.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked REKONIX55c780.69$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4977258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed Team Nemesis29c772.69$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.334759.6%28 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…683dbacked Team Nemesis50c750$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2b…ff84backed REKONIX69c749.97$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked Team Nemesis63c749.52$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.210770.1%75 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked REKONIX45c700.86$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.5729240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Nemesis49c694.51$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.391,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Nemesis46c670.89$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8472035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef8…a126backed REKONIX67c664.85$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Nemesis27c649.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.520145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed REKONIX46c631.17$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.482572%18 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+43.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Team Nemesis50c618.36$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1815345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked REKONIX65c618.14$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6812153.7%65 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis49c612.84$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.432,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Nemesis50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30056243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5e…81ffbacked Team Nemesis32c581.28$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ed…9bb9backed Team Nemesis51c566.83$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.253554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc947…f70cbacked REKONIX60c560.19$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+176.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Team Nemesis58c537.97$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Team Nemesis46c525.09$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ae9…a6d5backed REKONIX79c520$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b97…5521backed Team Nemesis40c519.28$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.812524%6 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54db…14a4backed REKONIX49c510$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Team Nemesis54c507.21$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.820251%103 W · 99 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Nemesis52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26021146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed REKONIX54c498.76$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9446664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked Team Nemesis27c498.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e71…f347backed Team Nemesis27c496.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Nemesis49c495.51$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.761,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Nemesis38c491.25$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.121,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Nemesis55c486.49$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3369235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Team Nemesis36c480.8$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.093935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Nemesis45c474.06$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Team Nemesis48c463.05$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.856152.5%32 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Nemesis51c454.24$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6612454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed REKONIX51c449.66$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7973743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a0…4bfdbacked Team Nemesis45c426.21$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Team Nemesis48c423.01$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.476848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Nemesis47c394.68$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Team Nemesis50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19419358.5%113 W · 80 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked REKONIX51c380.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5114747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked REKONIX53c362.93$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.5590756.1%509 W · 398 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cad…6ce4backed Team Nemesis46c349.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.991850%9 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Nemesis27c349.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4922643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa438…dd4dbacked Team Nemesis28c336.32$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed REKONIX43c329.75$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.7680544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.