Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed475166d532b62eacb8aa93496a17df1f8e05f568c1234ff5d19dc0ae12df76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 3,379$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.04 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 16c | 347.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 285.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…958dbacked Over | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 6c | 214.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 9c | 199.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 80c | 190.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 19c | 146.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Under | 20c | 98.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…2918backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Over | 80c | 47.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 79c | 25.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 80c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…efbbbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.