Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ef06ec5b0ffa770c645df8ea2904837e0153204d22ea0a1665729b0411c0c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 2,647$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 23c | 2,129$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.11 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 800$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 677.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 17c | 328.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.46 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Over | 27c | 260.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 19c | 238.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 70c | 200.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 199.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 34c | 195.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 23c | 174.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 73c | 155$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 71c | 142$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed Under | 73c | 137.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 79c | 126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…597ebacked Under | 10c | 119.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 29c | 114.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 80c | 110.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…2420backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +402.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 22c | 91.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 90.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Over | 36c | 72.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…2fd8backed Over | 31c | 57.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Over | 33c | 43.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 58c | 41.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…6c60backed Under | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 80c | 28.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…8f4dbacked Under | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…0ea4backed Under | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 78c | 17.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.