South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed562e103507f0f599399770a79fd05705b9822bb80870be447c29e5a6b3aa0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,132 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Over | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,337$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 12c | 413.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 11c | 249.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 14c | 127.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 12c | 90.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.