South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5423bb5691686a45931380aa01a746a5d0a1735d1a19627904b8399f449686ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 77c | 1,468$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.74 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 1,222$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.71 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 72c | 499.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Over | 28c | 442.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6a…089bbacked Under | 72c | 257.02$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Over | 24c | 230.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba4…6638backed Over | 40c | 197.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Under | 72c | 185.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 28c | 170.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 21c | 130.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 72c | 96.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…db9fbacked Under | 76c | 83.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 83.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 73c | 75.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Under | 80c | 65.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 63c | 63.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 28c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 41c | 39.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.