TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,423 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Over48c48,718$23,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,359.821850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under52c17,830$9,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,540.6551749.9%258 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c11,259$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,498.018,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c6,135$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,069.0916543.6%72 W · 93 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under57c3,982$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.855,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6805259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2003652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under52c1,988$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.2423354.9%128 W · 105 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under51c1,700$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.313171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+39%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Under58c1,563$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.4921251.9%110 W · 102 L+14.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under55c1,364$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.643060%18 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over35c1,344$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.5912827.3%35 W · 93 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under52c1,185$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.8637851.3%194 W · 184 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under52c1,100$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52839853%211 W · 187 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Under50c868.67$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.871957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+73.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over48c773.3$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.193951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under52c715.37$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.572,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Under52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6b…591abacked Under52c567.68$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.091338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under45c529.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.992,17043.7%948 W · 1,222 L-53.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff2…3b8bbacked Under52c510.8$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Under52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2404656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Under50c444$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over47c425$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.759651%49 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over70c411.43$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2885660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Over14c403.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58628.1%5 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1924153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…1d41backed Over66c299.68$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1995844.8%26 W · 32 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Under52c298.83$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.442157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over47c281.66$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3812645.2%57 W · 69 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12019460.3%117 W · 77 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12012761.4%78 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under52c225.6$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7455155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…3f87backed Over52c207.45$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Under52c199.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.892133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under59c199.1$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6345746.8%214 W · 243 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under53c190.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3550746.7%237 W · 270 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70fb…d507backed Under51c182.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.121392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf320…bd1cbacked Under51c181.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under52c175$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under52c175$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847856.4%44 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under52c174.11$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5713050.8%66 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7221837.6%82 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722850%14 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under52c150$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.52,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c147.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.431,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under51c141.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.937554.7%41 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.26558.5%38 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under52c134.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4927053%143 W · 127 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under52c129.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.221,35549.7%674 W · 681 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6017960.3%108 W · 71 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606962.3%43 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.63348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.67055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.613557%77 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under52c115$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.24050%20 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb253…26febacked Under55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.095162.7%32 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked Under52c106.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.162466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under49c105.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0511448.2%55 W · 59 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over47c105.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.663,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under51c105.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0335758%207 W · 150 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Under52c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.048263.4%52 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x758e…ad1cbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486162.3%38 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013335.3%47 W · 86 L-14.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee6…1678backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e5…3c0abacked Under51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefff…c0efbacked Under51c98.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.462080%16 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+35.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38ea…95d1backed Under51c98.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.221866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under50c97.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4220953.1%111 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x289c…79bcbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.159953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.22748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over69c87.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609361.3%57 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over41c80.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9528231.6%89 W · 193 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.48045%36 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Under54c77.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.30per pick51cpaid+55.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over69c76.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5249341%202 W · 291 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under52c73.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.16842.6%29 W · 39 L-8.7wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-29.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf69c…44dbbacked Under69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over35c71.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0511036.4%40 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3576951.5%396 W · 373 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65151%26 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Under59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x617e…4814backed Over70c66.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba49…e8acbacked Over31c66.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.232934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under54c65.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1911664.7%75 W · 41 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Under21c64.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.612330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f9…e1b8backed Over41c63.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.178843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.