South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e7a9f01e689e12b193e02654019c5acbeec7cbce3a14d577f5b6c800d984ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,472 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 2,355$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.97 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Yes | 67c | 899.81$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.94 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 721.74$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 49c | 540.8$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.81 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 43c | 501.49$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Yes | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…4ac2backed Yes | 57c | 398.86$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 57c | 353.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed No | 48c | 345.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 43c | 234.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 69c | 202.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 35c | 199.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 7c | 182.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked No | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed No | 48c | 130.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 43c | 59.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 51c | 37.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 69c | 31.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6075backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 53c | 21.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.