Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6ba208500270863ca488adca85ceb3f91a7faaa0f7d894220ccf79eaa6c84d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 1c | 2,907$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 68c | 392.35$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 264.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 61c | 202.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 180$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 176.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 176.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 7c | 172.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 145.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 21c | 119.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 40c | 119.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 104.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 98.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 21c | 98.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 29c | 97.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 26c | 94.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 47c | 87.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 85.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 20c | 85.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 84.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 80.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 77.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 39c | 73.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 48c | 69.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 74c | 66.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 64.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 31c | 57.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 51c | 54.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed No | 72c | 49.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 49.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 44c | 48.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…93d8backed No | 79c | 47.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 29c | 45.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…f2fcbacked No | 79c | 43.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 60c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 32c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…b3c3backed Yes | 28c | 39.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 49c | 39.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 38.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 31c | 33.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fe38backed No | 70c | 33.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 25.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 24.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 72c | 19.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.