Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429647359616a6b516be0814fc4be635f24ed9c460c37d195f2f29319fe2bdd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,086$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 59c | 287.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 63c | 260.61$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 11c | 257.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 60c | 251.42$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 35c | 223.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 199.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 45c | 187.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 25c | 171.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 21c | 155$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 150.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 31c | 143.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…aa06backed Yes | 43c | 132.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 130.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 37c | 126.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 80c | 124.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…502ebacked Yes | 47c | 101.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 101.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 91.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 66c | 84.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 72c | 82.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 77.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6a…1801backed Yes | 38c | 63.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 47c | 58.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 57.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 49c | 57.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 41c | 56.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 21c | 49.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 29c | 48.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 61c | 47.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…4e2bbacked Yes | 41c | 46.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 45.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 62c | 40.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 40c | 39.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 38.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 28c | 38.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 47c | 37.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 34c | 36.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 69c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 48c | 36.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 69c | 35.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 49c | 35.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 77c | 34.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 54c | 34.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 57c | 33.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…1e77backed Yes | 34c | 30.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…5e2cbacked No | 52c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 70c | 27.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed No | 45c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked Yes | 46c | 26.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…ebc6backed Yes | 40c | 26.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked No | 45c | 23.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 22.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 51c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.