Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6e59c48510384d917711402e129cae857ec1dfaa0186357c59da6378aeb1da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,774 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 73c | 7,400$5,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed Yes | 27c | 7,400$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 55c | 419.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.52 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 379$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 25c | 330$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 232.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 220.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 210.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 204.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 157.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 148.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 34c | 141.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 24c | 127.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 119.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…c41dbacked No | 79c | 118.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 109.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 108.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 36c | 102.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 52c | 96.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…6ce6backed Yes | 35c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 40c | 77.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 73.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 30c | 67.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 65.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 51c | 62.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…8ab4backed Yes | 32c | 61.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 59.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 34c | 58.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 52c | 58.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 56.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 52.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 48.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 42.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 41.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 41.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 39.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 37.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 36.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed No | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 71c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 25.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 330 | 37.9%125 W · 205 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.