Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c1fc607baa28852c29de7ea1bef725b8c315145aafb4a9a23a19cf0a626482a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 499.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 379$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 277.77$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 236.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 27c | 212.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 172.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 170.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 26c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 119.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 26c | 114.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 33c | 110.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 25c | 99.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 97.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 71c | 89.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 32c | 61.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 69c | 60.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 58.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 53.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 51.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 51.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 41.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 69c | 40.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 37.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 75c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 29c | 36.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 75c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 32.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 74c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 75c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 75c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 75c | 21.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…9e55backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.