Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654e909a8734c5085fb8d45cd0a747cc7f43a4370e291d771e1d08a01881e061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,820 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 0c | 5,991$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…fb78backed Yes | 21c | 3,682$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…222bbacked Yes | 18c | 3,682$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…d6d5backed No | 79c | 1,232$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…4b84backed No | 79c | 1,229$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…f2f1backed No | 79c | 1,221$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 67c | 521.75$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 27c | 472.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 379$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 354.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 11c | 225.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 58c | 213.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 204.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 201.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 189.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 55c | 182.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 79c | 181.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 70c | 163.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 154.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 25c | 120.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 112.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 48c | 105.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 104.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 17c | 101.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 22c | 100.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 18c | 94.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 52c | 94.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 17c | 91.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 90.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 82.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 80.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 34c | 74.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 73.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 67.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 64.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 60.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 58.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 54.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 72c | 51.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 42c | 49.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 46.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bb…7f36backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 68c | 30.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 78c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 77c | 17.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 78c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 78c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.