Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed7d182337deabe94a3adc941c4e52bb2721470d57cf71811374fb076d2b8e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Disguisedof Sentinels, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Disguised | 59c | 1,575$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.2 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Sentinels | 67c | 1,120$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Sentinels | 37c | 971.66$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.8 | 960 | 48.8%468 W · 492 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Disguised | 33c | 785.9$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.55 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Disguised | 40c | 624$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Sentinels | 56c | 399.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 563 | 41%231 W · 332 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Sentinels | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Disguised | 65c | 239.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Disguised | 43c | 132.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Sentinels | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Disguised | 36c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1,605 | 17.5%281 W · 1,324 L | -244.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…ef4abacked Sentinels | 61c | 34.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Sentinels | 36c | 28.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 807 | 32.8%265 W · 542 L | -44.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc578…5c1ebacked Disguised | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
- LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group StageDisguised won
- LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerSentinels won
- LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerDisguised won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.