Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9e2348532887722005ebfb3cc3a80af1522360fc210f5a8d2a70efbaa5b49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4abb…1e15backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…1531backed Yes | 5c | 1,066$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes | 78c | 257.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 73c | 250.27$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.26 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 22c | 219.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked No | 28c | 198.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 62c | 167.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 36c | 139.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 130.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 28c | 115.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 26c | 108.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 101.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 18c | 84.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 74c | 73.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…493abacked Yes | 67c | 67.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…2b38backed Yes | 75c | 57.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 56.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…2fcfbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd168…d2e8backed Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…87d3backed No | 46c | 46.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 78c | 46.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…e01fbacked No | 28c | 42.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 26c | 42.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 77c | 38.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 53c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 66c | 36.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…a885backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 66c | 29.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832a…c9febacked No | 41c | 26.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…0341backed Yes | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 57c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 51c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…9c1bbacked Yes | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 73c | 18.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…54c8backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on February 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on February 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on February 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.