Weather · resolved market
Megaquake in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede0a6b2c9b959ba95af31ba2ce2c7eed66e912eab55403b96f56465e319b049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 6c | 8,044$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.87 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 7,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,123$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 2,254$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,555$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 866.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 771.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 750$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 647.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 3c | 619.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 5c | 544.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…b799backed Yes | 8c | 334.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 8c | 265.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 6c | 184.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 7c | 152.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.