Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede6fd8383abe0a27f170599962fec4a2c1b824c2130736c70ca648e3f4d6592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacob Fearnleyof Jacob Fearnley, Roberto Carballes Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 28c | 12,762$3,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,625 | 352 | 44.6%157 W · 195 L | -20.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 19c | 12,589$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.9 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 14c | 11,000$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.52 | 1,404 | 28.7%403 W · 1,001 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 14c | 8,780$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.06 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 27c | 8,303$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.82 | 174 | 60.9%106 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 25c | 7,338$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.72 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 3c | 4,735$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.57 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 4,468$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.69 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 25c | 2,015$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.35 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 10c | 1,795$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 952 | 8.1%77 W · 875 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 1,620$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.94 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Jacob Fearnley | 72c | 1,465$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.12 | 1,143 | 46.4%530 W · 613 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 8c | 1,309$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Jacob Fearnley | 71c | 1,128$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.07 | 1,764 | 46.8%826 W · 938 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 8c | 1,122$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 1,044$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf647…0ccbbacked Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 1,013$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.42 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +647.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 2c | 950$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 211 | 17.5%37 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Jacob Fearnley | 77c | 886.7$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.45 | 2,696 | 47.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L | +46.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 17c | 861.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 2,394 | 38.4%920 W · 1,474 L | +87.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,318 | 43.6%574 W · 744 L | -23.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 21c | 561.31$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1,013 | 36.5%370 W · 643 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 10.3%9 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…497dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 405.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 16c | 395.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Jacob Fearnley | 75c | 360.05$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 2,004 | 53.2%1,067 W · 937 L | +52.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 17c | 294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 22c | 272.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1,657 | 44.2%733 W · 924 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 253.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 16c | 242.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,199 | 28.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L | -18.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Jacob Fearnley | 80c | 238.05$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Jacob Fearnley | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 258 | 63.2%163 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 12c | 201.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3,621 | 45.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 453 | 40%181 W · 272 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Jacob Fearnley | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 345 | 53.3%184 W · 161 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 53.5%160 W · 139 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 182$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 305 | 63.9%195 W · 110 L | +34.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 382 | 57.6%220 W · 162 L | +19.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 179$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 346 | 58.1%201 W · 145 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 7c | 169.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 164$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 371 | 59.6%221 W · 150 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 164$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 383 | 59.8%229 W · 154 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 161$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 362 | 60.5%219 W · 143 L | +27.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 158$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +26.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 352 | 58.2%205 W · 147 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 28c | 125.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…bf08backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 30c | 108.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,895 | 48.1%911 W · 984 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 30c | 96.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,212 | 52%630 W · 582 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 26c | 95.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 250 | 48.4%121 W · 129 L | +22.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Jacob Fearnley | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 326 | 59.2%193 W · 133 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed Jacob Fearnley | 69c | 77.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 26c | 74.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 397 | 47.9%190 W · 207 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…2200backed Jacob Fearnley | 75c | 72.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 29c | 62.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 355 | 40.3%143 W · 212 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 58.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 239 | 54.8%131 W · 108 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 25c | 55.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Jacob Fearnley | 75c | 54.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,442 | 35.8%874 W · 1,568 L | -29.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…9713backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 506 | 55.5%281 W · 225 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 30c | 39.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 798 | 57.6%460 W · 338 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Jacob Fearnley | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 792 | 49.1%389 W · 403 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Jacob Fearnley | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 943 | 47.7%450 W · 493 L | +35.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 331 | 64%212 W · 119 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Jacob Fearnley | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 278 | 52.5%146 W · 132 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 25.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Jacob Fearnley | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 72 | 93.1%67 W · 5 L | +16.8wins | +0.23per pick | 70cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 157 | 60.5%95 W · 62 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…ce26backed Jacob Fearnley | 74c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baenathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Fearnley vs BaenaFearnley won
- Set 2 Winner: Fearnley vs BaenaFearnley won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.