Premier League · resolved market
Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedeaaa5811f19d58bb97d20b0470c0a7979181fd4a13d7754340ba7492329082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 62c | 4,184$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.96 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 17c | 3,644$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,702$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,511$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.35 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Over | 33c | 1,325$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 758.76$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.03 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 53c | 687.49$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked Over | 46c | 654.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 18c | 552.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 527.35$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.98 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 480.87$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 42c | 363.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f4d1backed Under | 79c | 328$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 36c | 296.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…8bdcbacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…a8dbbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 179.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 159.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 50c | 144.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 15c | 116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 47c | 115.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 15c | 100.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 38c | 79.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 51c | 78.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…50adbacked Over | 34c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 47.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 44c | 34.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 35c | 28.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 38.9%61 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 60c | 27.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 54c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…7380backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Swansea City AFC won
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.