Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg vs. Slovakia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee1ccdd354072245acc989a9dabb2e6d56bc1a0bee3b97983ea100a3f1e31bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 40c | 7,101$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.44 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 63c | 6,507$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.03 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 1,371$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.44 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 24c | 1,351$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.5 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 73c | 1,232$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 27c | 1,183$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 997.82$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.24 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 254.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…ef60backed Yes | 28c | 211.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 26c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 153.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…4282backed Yes | 74c | 138.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2b82backed Yes | 62c | 96.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…6566backed No | 75c | 83.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…59c9backed No | 75c | 73.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 29c | 67.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed No | 75c | 62.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg vs. Slovakia end in a draw?this page
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-07?No won
- Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.