Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b5854c97eb1acd60fbf7542bed02a74c92d730d4e0a60222bc0fc9a9851af9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 20c | 10,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.93 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 18c | 5,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 3,713$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.44 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 16c | 2,064$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.6 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 80c | 1,883$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 1,552$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.78 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 24c | 1,138$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.62 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 596.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 4c | 505.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Yes | 23c | 282.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 214.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Yes | 17c | 172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 21c | 141.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…2ba7backed Yes | 23c | 117.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 19c | 109$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 21c | 104.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 35c | 96.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…c311backed Yes | 23c | 88.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Luxembourg vs. Slovakia end in a draw?No won
- Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.