South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee30ca6cbf64e0561b14183f70034d3b8c91b686de7d3762fa323629d3905fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 5,045$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,983.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 3,404$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.22 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 3,222$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.91 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 62c | 3,042$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.72 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…b017backed Over | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 39c | 1,709$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.66 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 43c | 699.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 26c | 634.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.18 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 470.64$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.33 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 44c | 449.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 38c | 319.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 58c | 307.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 38c | 305.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 62c | 293.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 55c | 151.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 62c | 138.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 35c | 125.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 60c | 112.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d0…7534backed Under | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 17c | 103.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 50c | 82.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…ef59backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 66c | 48.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 45.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 70c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Over | 54c | 35.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 37c | 30.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 72c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 49c | 26.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…6533backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…17dfbacked Under | 57c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 75c | 20.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 72c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: CA Tucumán O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.