NFL · resolved market
Spread: KC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee386363e5f90cd7b2f42dd1ae7045ca1b7f23328b941820ce82a14a93e13251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LAof KC, LA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc323…0171backed LA | 56c | 4,646$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed KC | 44c | 2,517$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed KC | 50c | 2,515$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.7 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed KC | 44c | 1,149$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.97 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed LA | 50c | 904.9$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.45 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked LA | 50c | 512$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked LA | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked KC | 43c | 422.57$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked LA | 51c | 296$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked KC | 49c | 276$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed LA | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed KC | 45c | 131$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked KC | 45c | 121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed KC | 52c | 114.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed LA | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa36…03e6backed KC | 57c | 51.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked KC | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked LA | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked LA | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed KC | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked LA | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked KC | 38c | 28.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked LA | 54c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed LA | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked KC | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KC (-2.5)this page
- LA vs. KC: O/U 35.5Under won
- LA vs. KC: O/U 36.5Under won
- Rams vs. ChiefsRams won
- Spread: KC (-1.5)LA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.