MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee39f2ac01fccd9b8c2573de7b3f145980de16ef126e3e1d6191f8b26fc26995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 46c | 2,725$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.92 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 2,176$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 1,988$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.36 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 1,644$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 1,211$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 984.82$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 54c | 853.39$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.56 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 60c | 602.93$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.94 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 594.16$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.37 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 577.19$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 46c | 548.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 57c | 350.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.82 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Over | 57c | 324.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 54c | 319.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 15c | 274.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 209.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 42c | 177.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 45c | 169.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 64c | 100.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 45c | 83.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…c7c7backed Over | 48c | 65.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 59.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 49.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 46.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 78c | 44.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Under | 44c | 42.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 42c | 39.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 35.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 40c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Under | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 29.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…8882backed Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 77c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.