MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd098c8dbf596357af27eb6363a637b590e21eb12aa7baddcf5fcd4986e6cad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 3,475$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 12c | 1,100$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 61c | 1,059$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.81 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 45c | 967$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 635.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 575.22$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 461.06$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 56c | 454.55$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 435.59$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 49c | 411.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.54 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 30c | 300.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 270.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 238.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 42c | 162.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 42c | 160.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 42c | 158.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 43c | 136.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 29c | 112.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 55c | 111.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 56c | 99.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 55c | 97.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Over | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 85.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 43c | 73.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 46c | 72.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 46c | 72.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 46c | 72.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 54c | 52.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Over | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 39c | 45.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 40c | 44.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 43c | 42.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 57c | 37.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…2ae8backed Under | 49c | 35.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 51c | 34.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Under | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 57c | 29.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 55c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 63c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Over | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Under | 46c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 58c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.