MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91584e628727a3c98c1bf9c14c58637a0d71ca00388461f67211f6dece0e891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 43,335$25,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,134.26 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 40,000$16,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,200 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 5,288$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 3,196$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.37 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 2,573$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 2,204$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.35 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 2,095$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.1 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 1,981$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.57 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,722$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.35 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 1,330$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.8 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 1,282$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 1,111$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.71 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,064$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.75 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 940.03$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 699.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.72 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 648.21$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.71 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 612.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 494.28$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…3657backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 415.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 400.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.46 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 366.06$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 295.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 294.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 234.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 221.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 144.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 124.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 123.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 107.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 84.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 79.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 52.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 50.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 45.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 43.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 43.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…bea0backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 34.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…2ae8backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 25.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 22.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.