Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee52dc868745f6593c978a8255eb363537788fc7c455cde537144c33cc59706b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 31c | 1,098$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.25 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 64c | 384.53$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.73 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 30c | 359.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 31c | 206.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 121.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Yes | 78c | 86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 67.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 58.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 26c | 52.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 31.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed No | 59c | 17.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.