TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,430 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c4,059$1,989 inLost-$1,988.648,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers49c2,019$990 inWon+$1,029.588,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers51c1,285$655 inWon+$629.554,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c702$400 inLost-$400.148,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers43c697.67$300 inWon+$397.672,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5e…2ea3backed Pittsburgh Pirates8c482.5$39 inLost-$38.6450%0 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates18c460.63$81 inLost-$81.322,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates32c446.52$141 inLost-$140.879,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers50c399$200 inWon+$199.51,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers67c213.52$143 inWon+$70.464472.7%32 W · 12 L+7.7wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers70c172.69$121 inWon+$51.811,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c152.08$73 inLost-$733652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers50c111.64$56 inWon+$55.911,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers53c106.08$57 inWon+$49.3611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c60$29 inLost-$29.417647.2%83 W · 93 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers69c40.58$28 inWon+$12.5812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c35.44$17 inLost-$17.372,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c34.53$20 inLost-$19.686,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f7…26b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers43c34.53$15 inWon+$19.682161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c29.78$15 inLost-$14.5912152.9%64 W · 57 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Pittsburgh Pirates57c20.95$12 inLost-$11.8944651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.