MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7f7449ce8497f1aee962e194d2fa2707cb2d9e86254405a2b5714c97eb2ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 16,549$8,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,172.79 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 14,842$7,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,580.38 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 7,643$4,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 7,138$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997.15 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 4,001$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 2,452$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 800.2$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.11 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 772.86$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 42c | 498.46$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 45c | 422.22$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 48c | 416$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 391$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 379.05$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 357.25$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 43c | 312.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 68c | 299.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 286.43$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 43c | 256$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…cab1backed Under | 55c | 173.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 130.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 43c | 123.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 100.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 77.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 56c | 66.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 63.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 58.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 50c | 51.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 56c | 37.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 61c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 67c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.