MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254fd01b81ed74d0f81cbfbee5517bb340fc1d0eb7fb4111149a778497a396ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 2,260$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,440$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 894$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 6c | 678.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 598.5$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 597$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 495.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 485.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 359.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.42 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 4c | 306$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 239.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 186$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 169.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 163.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 127.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 112.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 49.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 43.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.