Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8c9305e3076e455bdee807a50bc8146c6a061ba9b6bd215330cdf672dd3d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d42…a046backed Yes | 5c | 550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 62c | 242.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 239.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 235.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…fd0abacked Yes | 47c | 216.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 191.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 173.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 38c | 132.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 12c | 129.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 113.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 61c | 99.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed No | 50c | 97.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 92.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 54c | 91.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 58c | 86.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 64c | 76.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 55.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…843dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 47.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 46.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 76c | 45.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 44.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 42.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 41.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…92d1backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 38.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 37.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…a5cbbacked No | 80c | 37.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 40c | 35.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…7a46backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 43c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 41c | 31.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 39c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 71c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 58c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 24.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 50c | 20.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 69c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.