Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed63c483476d120b857dbc05336af2b78177f50f65b7fa42644a0d2b0b0f3c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 424.54$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 73c | 303.82$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 256.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 170.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 22c | 101.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 99.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 12c | 98.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 97.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 90.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 85.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 78.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 63.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 55.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…c4d0backed Yes | 28c | 53.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 51.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…fd0abacked Yes | 80c | 50.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 60c | 43.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 34.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 34.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 63c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 72c | 24.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 77c | 24.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 57c | 22.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 57c | 20.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.