NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb1c229e32e50dfc82dcba075169519cdfd0724dd513bb8f42ff16c76a70b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colts of Colts , Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Colts | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.97 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Colts | 45c | 2,430$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.72 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Colts | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Bengals | 55c | 1,866$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.3 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Bengals | 55c | 1,787$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Colts | 45c | 1,779$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.29 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bengals | 58c | 1,621$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.55 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Bengals | 54c | 1,556$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bengals | 1c | 1,466$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Colts | 42c | 1,172$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Bengals | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…19b7backed Colts | 46c | 978.9$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4be…98fbbacked Bengals | 58c | 641.51$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 32c | 571.72$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Bengals | 24c | 542.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…45e8backed Bengals | 58c | 413.79$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Bengals | 51c | 388.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Bengals | 54c | 381.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.27 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1138…b2c8backed Colts | 46c | 338.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Colts | 45c | 318.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bengals | 55c | 310.3$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Bengals | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colts | 61c | 273.44$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…3b86backed Bengals | 57c | 262.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…5830backed Bengals | 58c | 232.76$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Colts | 43c | 231.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Colts | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Colts | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Colts | 43c | 200.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Bengals | 53c | 188.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Bengals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Colts | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Colts | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Colts | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…6519backed Colts | 74c | 99.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Bengals | 57c | 79.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…6d0cbacked Bengals | 54c | 78.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Colts | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…b1cfbacked Bengals | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Bengals | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Colts | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Colts | 58c | 43.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Colts | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Colts | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Bengals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked Colts | 44c | 34.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Colts | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Bengals | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Bengals | 55c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bengals | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Colts | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Bengals | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Bengals | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.