Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeecf8d7b9240bda8f23de211e3cfcac42ce085d3017826091a5eba5b5d91756e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 720.08$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.94 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 47c | 513.61$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.92 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 493$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 460.27$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 240.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 174.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 162.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 52c | 143.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 51c | 136.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 133.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 52c | 129.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 42c | 123.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 121.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 100.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 89.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 80.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 75.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 75.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 70.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 45c | 68.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 53c | 61.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 54.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 54.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 50.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 46.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 46.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 50c | 44.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 44.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 53c | 43.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 40.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 49c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 48c | 33.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 45c | 33.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 41c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 27.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 23.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…16e4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.