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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Back to Back vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Back to Back of Back to Back , Keyd
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Keyd57c4,203$2,406 inLost-$2,405.893,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Back to Back 60c3,006$1,805 inWon+$1,201.153,26950.3%1,644 W · 1,625 L+98.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Back to Back 57c1,890$1,080 inWon+$809.812,50044.6%1,115 W · 1,385 L-67.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Back to Back 63c1,416$892 inWon+$524.742,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Back to Back 50c1,146$573 inWon+$573.1632536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Back to Back 52c972.58$507 inWon+$465.3380744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keyd50c954.88$473 inLost-$472.992,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Back to Back 55c808.2$442 inWon+$366.636,54042.9%2,805 W · 3,735 L-81.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Back to Back 48c573.38$275 inWon+$298.1615732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Back to Back 61c555.41$342 inWon+$213.851,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Keyd48c540.03$260 inLost-$259.88,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Back to Back 60c461.64$279 inWon+$182.824,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Back to Back 49c439.51$217 inWon+$222.9221939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Back to Back 57c399.6$228 inWon+$171.8352951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Keyd26c375.27$96 inLost-$96.184,02236.4%1,466 W · 2,556 L-208.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Keyd56c357.14$200 inLost-$20014362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Keyd46c324.99$150 inLost-$1505641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Keyd19c264.74$50 inLost-$5055639.7%221 W · 335 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Keyd15c235$34 inLost-$34.2922324.7%55 W · 168 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd9b8…50d8backed Keyd33c230$76 inLost-$75.96050%30 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Keyd29c202$59 inLost-$59.011,30526.4%345 W · 960 L-89.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Keyd47c199.99$93 inLost-$9379346.4%368 W · 425 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Back to Back 62c198.32$123 inWon+$74.915,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Keyd56c178.57$100 inLost-$10041847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc14d…f137backed Keyd51c152.09$77 inLost-$77.328146.9%38 W · 43 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Back to Back 66c121$80 inWon+$40.6654346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Keyd34c118.52$41 inLost-$40.5521956.2%123 W · 96 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Keyd56c113.65$64 inLost-$63.6946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Back to Back 53c110$58 inWon+$51.715544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Back to Back 67c100.58$68 inWon+$32.7926958.4%157 W · 112 L+20.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadf8…1e82backed Keyd34c80$27 inLost-$27.26854.4%37 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4e3…b39ebacked Back to Back 58c79.61$47 inWon+$33.091154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Keyd48c78.62$37 inLost-$37.451,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Keyd58c77.01$45 inLost-$44.6774251.1%379 W · 363 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1405…d36fbacked Keyd21c69.94$15 inLost-$151353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Back to Back 70c66$46 inWon+$19.6538942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Keyd48c65.99$32 inLost-$31.6647053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Keyd35c64.28$23 inLost-$22.691,55433.9%527 W · 1,027 L-73.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x917d…9429backed Back to Back 36c64$23 inWon+$40.967537.3%28 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Back to Back 66c62.45$41 inWon+$21.1111646.6%54 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdec…7ad6backed Keyd51c58.8$30 inLost-$29.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Keyd23c58.24$13 inLost-$13.433243.4%144 W · 188 L-15.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Back to Back 49c46.04$22 inWon+$23.7145224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Back to Back 54c41$22 inWon+$18.9827443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Back to Back 53c37$20 inWon+$17.392,60652.6%1,371 W · 1,235 L+96.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Back to Back 71c36$26 inWon+$10.4124747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd32…8100backed Keyd52c26.79$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Keyd56c21.8$12 inLost-$12.2127556.7%156 W · 119 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a3a…f788backed Keyd56c20$11 inLost-$11.216338.7%63 W · 100 L-13.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Back to Back 77c15.24$12 inWon+$3.492,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.