Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef15198fd38f7d1f3ea0d0f8f9645c1b0214c33132711b569693dba8505a3f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 16,007$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,321.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 12,204$8,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 73c | 2,188$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,807$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 72c | 1,543$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.09 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,121$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 51c | 1,046$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 904.94$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.63 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 836.79$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.57 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 826.45$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.85 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 765.92$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 28c | 536$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 26c | 381.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 25c | 350.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed No | 73c | 336.98$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 72c | 299.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 197.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 12c | 166.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 27c | 133.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 29c | 123.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 14c | 120.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7e74backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 28c | 74.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 65.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…069abacked No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 56.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 46.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…cae9backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.