TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x869b…c625backed No67c67,245$44,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,999.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes33c29,812$9,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,973.721,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Yes34c27,078$9,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,871.681947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No66c20,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,199.995052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes47c9,900$4,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,250.823,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes33c8,884$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.4778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Yes35c8,273$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,382.463762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No44c7,500$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes35c5,000$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,238.653855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No66c5,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Yes56c2,978$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.495954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes34c2,829$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.062,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No66c2,699$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.0444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes43c2,573$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.4275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes33c2,476$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.7523046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No65c2,011$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.342661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes33c1,958$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.8914157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes55c1,712$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.2828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes30c1,668$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.4824050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes33c1,548$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.1514846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No65c1,318$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.6356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes33c1,212$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.123834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No66c999.99$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6608251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No64c999.99$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9934144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes23c999.1$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.3115847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes34c879.02$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.196154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No65c800$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52210057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes26c773.08$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.0816060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes33c767.46$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.7619347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes61c661.25$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.3551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed No70c600$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4209173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes35c379.47$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.5519544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes34c350.77$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5110128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked No72c333.33$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No37c325.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9213332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.038532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20111036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes35c279.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.8434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes35c271.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.432138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes36c263.89$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed No67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.59350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes33c210$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.74136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13216045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12833340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1324141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1322326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc0e…2ff0backed No32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1670…2277backed Yes35c180$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1172138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes33c174$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5830054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes33c165$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Yes36c139.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.342437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes36c133.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.333647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6310…0d90backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582045%9 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No19c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22015%3 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes35c110$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes24c104.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.176053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Yes35c99.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.311747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf292…b60cbacked Yes35c94.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+127.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Yes27c89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.971241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a2…1096backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes29c83.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes34c83.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.065250%26 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.654161%25 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc48d…8a40backed Yes35c75.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.032161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+124.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438c…481abacked Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.072864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.433164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f93…02c8backed Yes34c66.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed No65c63.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.583951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407268.1%49 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked No51c60.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes34c56.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9810040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.795339.6%21 W · 32 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6eb2…951bbacked Yes35c47.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.341060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes26c46.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.158531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Yes34c44.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.654942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No64c42.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.427052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Yes33c42.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.426035%21 W · 39 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15a0…c396backed Yes35c41.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265433.3%18 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed No64c39.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.613859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No64c38.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.892665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed No44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf772…3abcbacked Yes35c30.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Yes36c30.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked No80c30.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa1…3240backed Yes36c30.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+151.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Yes58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8d…673abacked No66c28.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e77…ec4ebacked No66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd1…2739backed No66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa973…f639backed No66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed No68c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159447.9%45 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aea…9f4dbacked No66c21.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f7…21a3backed No66c21.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa94b…925fbacked No66c21.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.