TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes38c15,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No62c11,945$7,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,538.969455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No61c9,640$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.381,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No62c2,523$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.1327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.8330054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed Yes38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3bb…c8acbacked No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7605100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes38c1,771$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.3251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6908…78bdbacked Yes39c1,715$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ca…185fbacked Yes39c1,650$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351d…c149backed No61c1,631$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd56a…9679backed Yes39c1,610$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc709…632ebacked Yes39c1,579$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5851346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes38c1,481$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.7333244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes39c1,450$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b2…029fbacked Yes39c1,348$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc7…5a5fbacked No61c1,267$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes38c1,197$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.5334342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2142…1e8abacked No61c1,060$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-72.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked Yes38c998.88$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.671338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d0…6195backed No61c964.99$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c2…db1bbacked Yes39c905$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x452a…241fbacked Yes39c874$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a9…7f13backed Yes39c859$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5212backed Yes39c858$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaedc…ec9ebacked Yes39c828$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked No62c775$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630a…6a53backed Yes39c763$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes44c760.96$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb2…2166backed Yes39c706$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes38c699$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes37c583.56$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.719746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…5a93backed No61c549$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No64c543$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4816060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x590c…039fbacked No61c533$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes37c521.94$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.342326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd69…e2cebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b9…7e74backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…e272backed Yes39c495$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.05450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ff…3182backed No61c489$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…692bbacked Yes39c474$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a42…4153backed No61c467$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes39c452$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2615134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No61c422.03$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6919347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Yes34c421.35$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.253762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f6…89a3backed No61c391$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No61c385$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4f…5aedbacked Yes39c380$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x738a…4525backed Yes39c369$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ee…68edbacked Yes39c343$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No66c332$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbc…0680backed Yes39c320$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a4…da99backed No61c317$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.634100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5936…e1c3backed Yes39c317$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac3…11d2backed Yes39c310$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb89e…0331backed Yes39c302$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076e…a6a4backed Yes69c286.32$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.561675%12 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x818c…abd5backed No61c283$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes39c269.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bcb…b602backed Yes39c258$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes51c243.46$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0119544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6066…3021backed Yes39c239$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes51c204.09$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No61c200.44$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.179552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4214726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes42c199.31$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes37c195.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2123046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d0…d107backed No63c195.16$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No53c184.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.316542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1670…2277backed Yes39c179.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No29c140$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.46347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes39c133.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8d…673abacked Yes38c116.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.871225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x438d…d48ebacked No61c113$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da9…992fbacked No61c105$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25b0…94ebbacked No62c104.84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.841070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff5c…f5c9backed No61c92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Yes73c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.62560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No68c78.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca84…fe27backed No63c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.521041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304339.5%17 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No51c74.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.348946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb556…14bfbacked No20c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+244.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7040…eb6fbacked Yes39c68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No70c66.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2019458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee35…11ecbacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce7…f8a1backed Yes39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes33c60.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed No63c60.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.34858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.