South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef1b6cdd744b4eea0c8431cbf9b37f6ff826096f57d6e6b4321351ac95e798f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,081 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 12c | 8,115$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 50c | 5,743$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 5,334$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed No | 50c | 3,993$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 938$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…ef2bbacked Yes | 51c | 345.43$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Yes | 50c | 282.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 46c | 250.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 49c | 207.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 167.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 49c | 123.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 121.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed No | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 97.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 51c | 95.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…541ebacked Yes | 40c | 91.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 56c | 75.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…9d70backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 71c | 59.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 57c | 57.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…973cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 43.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 51c | 42.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 50c | 39.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Yes | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…f2dcbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…c591backed Yes | 49c | 21.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 59c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 70c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +380.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will CS Cristal vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.