South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43efa9ee49aaad3d45c412b47d94bb0cb617e311d2c7affac0e656b0e8837260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,239 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes | 65c | 703.61$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.21 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86f…da81backed Yes | 20c | 688.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 26c | 597.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 51c | 489$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 487.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 32c | 338.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 329.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 300.06$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…ffb3backed No | 80c | 281$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…3b86backed Yes | 20c | 281$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db4bbacked Yes | 72c | 275.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 258.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 22c | 209.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…b4b6backed Yes | 73c | 192.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 116.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 115.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 38c | 113.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 45c | 104.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 33c | 88.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Yes | 71c | 88.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Yes | 72c | 82.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 57c | 77.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3f…64d6backed No | 30c | 74.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed No | 27c | 60.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 24c | 56.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…a488backed Yes | 71c | 43.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…a538backed Yes | 68c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d792backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed Yes | 77c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…8ec0backed Yes | 71c | 23.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…362fbacked No | 66c | 22.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 61c | 18.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 77c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will CS Cristal vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CS Cristal win on 2026-03-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.