Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5330274697be57dfc376b5b3a6bf1ee76adacdfe165272c8be099b4afe50df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 12c | 8,513$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 4,738$3,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.37 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 72c | 1,606$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.31 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,153$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.14 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 28c | 963.01$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.33 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 28c | 698.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 28c | 428.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 74c | 271$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 29c | 139.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…4fc1backed Over | 71c | 139.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 43.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 28c | 37.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 28c | 37.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 72c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.