Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff2e6700b60140007d301708e796fa0c537e11f2ffbda1da1b02fe9989658b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 5,441$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.48 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,988$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.71 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 76c | 1,927$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.91 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 1,327$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.58 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 65c | 1,111$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.89 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 43c | 879.58$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.14 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 24c | 632.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.83 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 496.67$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 24c | 425.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.31 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Under | 55c | 364.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 24c | 327$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.52 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 59c | 305$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 69c | 244.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 53c | 198.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 26c | 181.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Under | 27c | 176.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 66c | 74.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 64c | 66.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 62c | 66.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 63c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 55.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 45c | 40.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 74c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | -10.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…517dbacked Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.