Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9da2c7f156332114f06959f3d054f60c0ec4513839002e57ce3a76ec6a61e52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 31c | 8,274$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.24 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 54c | 6,606$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.47 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 23c | 4,355$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 78c | 3,426$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.28 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 70c | 3,343$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.83 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 3,040$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.73 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 48c | 2,694$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.09 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,496$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.68 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Over | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 1,987$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.43 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 77c | 1,838$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.68 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 935.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.49 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 49c | 723.37$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.92 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 53c | 684.37$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.24 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 48c | 625.74$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 50c | 421.94$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 48c | 399.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 78c | 387.62$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 53c | 288.22$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…6428backed Under | 51c | 274.02$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Over | 47c | 238.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 78c | 214.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 13c | 171.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 11c | 130.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 48c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 46c | 109.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 39c | 73.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 52c | 64.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 42c | 62.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 54c | 53.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…1cc0backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 63c | 39.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Over | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Over | 45c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Over | 45c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Over | 48c | 32.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 28.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 52c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | -10.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.