Asian League · resolved market
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1887c9a32a1e2ab411cb25abc0ace585c7667fc7670d8ae79693f64f77d1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Machida Zelviaof FC Machida Zelvia, Urawa Red Diamonds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Machida Zelvia | 47c | 3,044$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.03 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 64c | 1,954$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.37 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 79c | 404$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked FC Machida Zelvia | 72c | 277.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 74c | 230.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…089abacked FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487e…0d66backed FC Machida Zelvia | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf4…5324backed FC Machida Zelvia | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 163.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 27c | 140.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 80.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…2f01backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked FC Machida Zelvia | 27c | 74.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…e746backed FC Machida Zelvia | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 35.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 72c | 30.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 72c | 30.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 78c | 29.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 24.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.