Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932159d4b32875de741caf158a540b16cef8bbda873658999f8e68a281ba9add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 10,150$5,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,792.44 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…44b7backed Yes | 53c | 3,146$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 48c | 2,441$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.17 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 2,436$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.14 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 1,824$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.04 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 47c | 1,302$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.94 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 47c | 1,302$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.94 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 1,302$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.94 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 863.09$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.65 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 46c | 543$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.78 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 46c | 356$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 48c | 169.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 49c | 137.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 50c | 117.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 62c | 116.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 46c | 80.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked No | 47c | 57.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed No | 49c | 53.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 54c | 36.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 52c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: FC Machida Zelvia O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Urawa Red Diamonds 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.