MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef78dbf4eb283a70374b2ea4c74ae90a59c85b02b65ae2554b48c352e19e4278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,431 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 1,406$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.24 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.94 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 753.19$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.19 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 575.91$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.23 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 282$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 172$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 167$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…c4f7backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 97.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 97.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 87.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 67.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 67.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 61.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 38.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…08c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 21.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 20.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.