Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Dayton Flyers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef89eaa080237e20c7947c1a5f410bfd7df72a31d253c886aefbea225e304017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Bonaventure Bonniesof Dayton Flyers, St. Bonaventure Bonnies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,795 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 55,839$25,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,677.73 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 35,788$19,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,462.71 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 16,166$8,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,436.16 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dayton Flyers | 46c | 4,602$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.67 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 3,391$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.55 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.45 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 954.63$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.13 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Dayton Flyers | 48c | 694.94$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.57 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 57c | 584.93$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.78 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 551.17$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.54 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 541.12$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 374.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 348.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 297.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 296.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 251.16$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 56c | 177.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 150.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Dayton Flyers | 47c | 130.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 63c | 119.84$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Dayton Flyers | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 94.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dayton Flyers | 36c | 61.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 58.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 55.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 53c | 46.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 56c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 54c | 38.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 52c | 35.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 33.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dayton Flyers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-3.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-4.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-5.5)St. Bonaventure Bonnies won
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 132.5Under won
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 140.5Under won
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 142.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.