Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef97248f4c64a6822906305877355e4aa1b5b39c12842755262a972b4fcdd6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 573.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 64c | 433.07$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 222$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 204.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 202.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 45c | 187.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 164.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 46c | 157.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 148.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 143.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 61c | 138.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 133$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 35c | 106.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 51c | 98.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 64c | 92.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 91.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 51c | 91.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 85.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 69.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 36c | 64.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 44c | 59.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 166 | 51.8%86 W · 80 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 59.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 48.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 48.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed Yes | 40c | 47.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 42.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 63c | 39.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 37.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 38c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…0a3cbacked Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 31.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 49c | 29.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 27.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 27.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 24.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 56c | 18.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 65c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 69c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.